Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
